S&P Upgrades Nigeria to ‘B’ as Tinubu’s Three-Year Reform Drive Pays Off

Global ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has lifted Nigeria’s long-term credit rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘, citing tangible gains from President Bola Tinubu’s structural reforms and a dramatically improved economic trajectory.

S&P pointed to three years of sustained reforms, particularly the 2023 foreign exchange market liberalization that transformed a crisis into a functioning market. Average monthly FX turnover surged to $8.6 billion in 2025, with April 2026 alone hitting $10 billion. External reserves climbed from $33 billion in 2023 to $50 billion by March 2026—fueled by lower import demand, fuel subsidy removal, and booming domestic refining.

The agency singled out Dangote Industries’ 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery hitting near-maximum capacity as a game-changer, slashing Nigeria’s fuel import bill and reshaping the current account.

Executive Order 9—signed February 2026—now forces NNPC to remit a larger share of petroleum revenues directly to the Federation Account. S&P projects government revenue jumping from 7.3% of GDP in 2023 to 12.4% in 2026, with debt-servicing pressures expected to ease.

S&P forecasts 3.7% real GDP growth for 2026, inflation cooling from 23% to 17.7%, and the current account surplus widening to 5.8% of GDP. Oil production is projected at 1.66 million barrels daily. The outlook is stable—but S&P warned ratings could reverse if reforms stall or fiscal policy loosens.